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CASE

Statistics

Outcome patterns across decided public DOHA cases. The filters below narrow the view by concern, time period, representation, and judge. Descriptive statistics, not predictions. Data through September 2026.

Years
to
Concern
Representation
Clear all

Reference dates for comparisons: the current adjudicative guidelines took effect in June 2017, and updated marijuana guidance was issued in December 2021.

Filtered viewYears: 2016 to 2016 · removeSelf-represented · removeClear all

Key findings

Cases in view

1,510

decided public DOHA cases

Hearing decisions

1,348

decided after a hearing or on the written record

Appeal decisions

162

Appeal Board decisions, counted separately

Granted overall

37%

496 granted of 1,345 decided

Grant rates over time

Range across judges

23 to 72%

grant rate across the 31 busiest judges, 2016 to 2016

Outcomes by judge

Most common concern

Guideline F

Financial Considerations · 36% granted of 1,065 decided

Outcomes by concern

Decisions span 2016 to 2016

View these cases

Using this page: the filters above narrow every section, selecting a chart row opens the cases underneath it, and each section downloads as a CSV file.

Grant rates over time

How often clearances were granted, by year.

37% granted overall (496 of 1,345). Yearly rates ranged 37 to 37% where the yearly sample is large enough.

DecisionsGrant rate05001,0001,5000%25%50%75%100%20162016: 1,348 decisions · 37% granted · select to filter to 2016

Swipe the chart for earlier years. Select any year to filter the page to it.

How to read this chart

Grey bars count the decisions published in each year, read against the left axis. The blue line is the grant rate for that year, read against the right axis, and it is drawn only for years with 20 or more decided cases. The shaded band over 1999 and 2000 marks two years when very few decisions were published: DOHA published few decisions online before 2002, and almost none survive for those two years. The dashed lines mark the June 2017 adjudicative guidelines and the December 2021 marijuana guidance taking effect. They do not claim that either change caused what the chart shows.

Outcomes by concern

How each type of concern was resolved.

Granted against denied for each concern, counted per concern: a case raising more than one concern appears under each of them, so these rows add up to more than the number of cases in this view. Case-level totals are in the section above. Open a row for the specific issues inside it.

† marks fewer than 20 cases, too few to be reliable. A case can raise several concerns, so the rows overlap.

Mitigations judges credited most

How often each mitigation was expressly accepted by the judge, not merely claimed, across the cases in this view. This is a count of how often something was credited, so the bars are neutral: they carry no outcome.

Deep U.S. ties57
Debt paid in full42
Acknowledgment & remorse10
Documented abstinence period9
No subsequent offenses7
Rehabilitation evidence5
Voluntary disclosure before confrontation4
Credible explanation of omission3
Financial counseling3
Willingness to renounce foreign citizenship2
Passage of time2
Payment plan with creditor2
Payment plan with irs2
Surrender of foreign passport2
Chapter 13 bankruptcy1

Outcomes by representation

Whether represented and self-represented applicants were granted at different rates.

The representation filter narrows the other sections. This section always shows every group, because a comparison with one side removed is not a comparison.

Represented by a lawyer

60% granted · 177 granted · 119 denied

Self-represented

37% granted · 496 granted · 849 denied

Difference

1.6 times

the grant rate with a lawyer

An association, not proof of cause: the groups being compared differ in many ways. Select a row to filter the page.

Outcomes by judge

How the cases each judge decided were resolved.

Window: 2016 to 2016. Adjust the time range above to change it.

† marks judges with fewer than 20 decided cases in this window. Judges hear different mixes of cases, so these rates describe the decided record, not the judges.

Appeal outcomes

How appealed decisions were treated by the Appeal Board.

The Appeal Board reviews the specific errors a party claims. It can affirm a decision, leaving it in place; reverse it, replacing the outcome; or remand it, sending it back to the judge. It does not rehear the case. Based on 228 appeal decisions with a verified outcome. Year and concern filters apply here; judge and representation filters do not.

  • affirmed · 206 of 228 (90%)
  • reversed · 9 of 228 (4%)
  • remanded · 13 of 228 (6%)

Most appeals do not change the outcome: the Board overturned about 4% of the decisions brought to it.

Appeals by party, with outcomes

Applicants appeal denials; the Government appeals grants it disagrees with. Whether an outcome helped the applicant therefore depends on who appealed.

  • The applicant

    Appeals
    216
    Affirmed
    204 (94%)
    Reversed
    0 (0%)
    Remanded
    12 (6%)

  • The Government (Department Counsel)

    Appeals
    12
    Affirmed
    2 (17%)
    Reversed
    9 (75%)
    Remanded
    1 (8%)

Grounds for reversal or remand

The grounds the Board gave. A case can have more than one.

Ignored material evidence12
No rational connection from the facts to the conclusion12
Missing findings2
Other2
Second-guessed credibility without a basis1
Lack of jurisdiction1

Errors alleged on appeal

The errors the parties raised, across every appeal in this selection.

Arbitrary, capricious, or contrary to law165
The judge mis-weighed or ignored evidence59
No specific harmful error alleged51
Erroneous finding of fact19
Due process or fairness15
Mitigation wrongly applied12
Whole-person analysis8
Judge bias or partiality7
Credibility determination4
Procedural error1

Error found, but harmless

14%

of affirmances · 29 of 206

The Board agreed the judge erred but left the outcome in place, because the error did not change the result.

Most-cited authorities

  • Department of the Navy v. Egan167
  • ISCR Case No. 12-03420 at 3 (App. Bd. Jul. 2519
  • ISCR Case No. 14-05795 at 2 (App. Bd. Apr. 2617
  • ISCR Case No. 14-0609316
  • ISCR Case No. 14-06093 at 3 (App. Bd. Dec. 416
  • ISCR Case No. 14-06440 at 4 (App. Bd. Jan. 814
  • ISCR Case No. 14-06686 at 2 (App. Bd. Apr. 2713
  • ISCR Case No. 14-0374712
Appeal Board judges by number of appeals

Appeals are decided by three-member panels, so an outcome belongs to the panel and not to any single judge. There is no per-judge rate for that reason.

Michael Y. Ra'anan · 218 appealsJames E. Moody · 180 appealsJames F. Duffy · 113 appealsWilliam S. Fields · 78 appealsJeffrey D. Billett · 46 appealsCatherine M. Engstrom · 25 appealsJean E. Smallin · 22 appeals

A structured reading of the decided public Appeal Board record. The outcome the Board stated matched our independent read in 100% of cases.

Browse appeal decisions

Questions about these statistics

The statistics assistant is part of Professional.

The statistics on this page are free, with or without a subscription.

It answers questions about the figures on this page, inside the filters you have set, with the denominator behind every number.

Professional plan details

Publications and measured series

Ongoing analyses computed from the decided record, each on its own page, with its method and the counts behind every rate.

Granted ÷ decided; † marks groups under 20 cases. Full methodology

Reading the statistics

  • Granted = access granted or continued; Denied = denied or revoked.
  • Grant rate = granted ÷ (granted + denied).
  • † marks figures based on fewer than 20 cases, too few to be reliable.
  • Hovering any rate shows its statistical range (a 95% confidence interval).
  • Figures are descriptive counts over decided, public DOHA ISCR decisions, never predictions or assessments of any pending case.

Decided public cases: descriptive, never a prediction.