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Statistics

Outcome patterns across decided public DOHA cases. The filters below narrow the view by concern, time period, representation, and judge. Descriptive statistics, not predictions. Data through September 2026.

Years
to
Concern
Representation

Reference dates for comparisons: the current adjudicative guidelines took effect in June 2017, and updated marijuana guidance was issued in December 2021.

Key findings

Cases in view

1,174

decided public DOHA cases

Hearing decisions

1,078

decided after a hearing or on the written record

Appeal decisions

96

Appeal Board decisions, counted separately

Granted overall

44%

470 granted of 1,070 decided

Most common concern

Guideline F

Financial Considerations · 29% granted of 13,546 decided

Decisions span 1997 to 2026

View these cases

Using this page: the filters above narrow every section, selecting a chart row opens the cases underneath it, and each section downloads as a CSV file.

Grant rates over time

How often clearances were granted, by year.

44% granted overall (470 of 1,070). Yearly rates ranged 31 to 63% where the yearly sample is large enough.

DecisionsGrant rate0501000%25%50%75%100%2017 guidelines199720022006201020142018202320261997: 3 decisions · select to filter to 19971998: 2 decisions · select to filter to 19981999: 4 decisions · select to filter to 19992001: 20 decisions · 35% granted · select to filter to 20012002: 60 decisions · 57% granted · select to filter to 20022003: 80 decisions · 51% granted · select to filter to 20032004: 86 decisions · 40% granted · select to filter to 20042005: 79 decisions · 47% granted · select to filter to 20052006: 79 decisions · 37% granted · select to filter to 20062007: 71 decisions · 39% granted · select to filter to 20072008: 77 decisions · 34% granted · select to filter to 20082009: 63 decisions · 39% granted · select to filter to 20092010: 48 decisions · 31% granted · select to filter to 20102011: 59 decisions · 32% granted · select to filter to 20112012: 31 decisions · 33% granted · select to filter to 20122013: 42 decisions · 43% granted · select to filter to 20132014: 27 decisions · 41% granted · select to filter to 20142015: 46 decisions · 48% granted · select to filter to 20152016: 58 decisions · 55% granted · select to filter to 20162017: 73 decisions · 63% granted · select to filter to 20172018: 35 decisions · 60% granted · select to filter to 20182019: 4 decisions · select to filter to 20192020: 4 decisions · select to filter to 20202022: 4 decisions · select to filter to 20222023: 6 decisions · select to filter to 20232024: 5 decisions · select to filter to 20242025: 1 decisions · select to filter to 20252026: 8 decisions · select to filter to 2026

Swipe the chart for earlier years. Select any year to filter the page to it.

How to read this chart

Grey bars count the decisions published in each year, read against the left axis. The blue line is the grant rate for that year, read against the right axis, and it is drawn only for years with 20 or more decided cases. The shaded band over 1999 and 2000 marks two years when very few decisions were published: DOHA published few decisions online before 2002, and almost none survive for those two years. The dashed lines mark the June 2017 adjudicative guidelines and the December 2021 marijuana guidance taking effect. They do not claim that either change caused what the chart shows.

Outcomes by concern

How each type of concern was resolved.

Granted against denied for each concern, counted per concern: a case raising more than one concern appears under each of them, so these rows add up to more than the number of cases in this view. Case-level totals are in the section above. Open a row for the specific issues inside it. The concern filter narrows the other sections. In this section it highlights the row instead, so that concerns stay comparable with each other.

† marks fewer than 20 cases, too few to be reliable. A case can raise several concerns, so the rows overlap.

Mitigations judges credited most

How often each mitigation was expressly accepted by the judge, not merely claimed, across the cases in this view. This is a count of how often something was credited, so the bars are neutral: they carry no outcome.

Deep U.S. ties249
Willingness to renounce foreign citizenship16
Surrender of foreign passport14
Foreign assets divested12
Foreign passport surrendered8
Severed foreign contact6
Rehabilitation evidence4
U.S. military service3
Promptly corrected the falsification3
Contact disclosed to authorities2
Dual citizenship based solely on parents' citizenship or birth in a foreign country2
Willingness to renounce dual citizenship2
Passport destroyed1
Individual has expressed a willingness to renounce dual citizenship1
Foreign passport expired1

Outcomes by representation

Whether represented and self-represented applicants were granted at different rates.

The representation filter narrows the other sections. This section always shows every group, because a comparison with one side removed is not a comparison.

Represented by a lawyer

68% granted · 293 granted · 141 denied

Self-represented

44% granted · 470 granted · 600 denied

Difference

1.5 times

the grant rate with a lawyer

An association, not proof of cause: the groups being compared differ in many ways. Select a row to filter the page.

Outcomes by judge

How the cases each judge decided were resolved.

Window: 2017 to 2026, chosen so that changes over time are not mistaken for differences between judges. Adjust the time range above to change it.

† marks judges with fewer than 20 decided cases in this window. Judges hear different mixes of cases, so these rates describe the decided record, not the judges.

Appeal outcomes

How appealed decisions were treated by the Appeal Board.

The Appeal Board reviews the specific errors a party claims. It can affirm a decision, leaving it in place; reverse it, replacing the outcome; or remand it, sending it back to the judge. It does not rehear the case. Based on 141 appeal decisions with a verified outcome. Year and concern filters apply here; judge and representation filters do not.

  • affirmed · 107 of 141 (76%)
  • reversed · 26 of 141 (18%)
  • remanded · 8 of 141 (6%)

Most appeals do not change the outcome: the Board overturned about 18% of the decisions brought to it.

Appeals by party, with outcomes

Applicants appeal denials; the Government appeals grants it disagrees with. Whether an outcome helped the applicant therefore depends on who appealed.

  • The applicant

    Appeals
    107
    Affirmed
    104 (97%)
    Reversed
    0 (0%)
    Remanded
    3 (3%)
  • The Government (Department Counsel)

    Appeals
    33
    Affirmed
    3 (9%)
    Reversed
    25 (76%)
    Remanded
    5 (15%)
  • Both parties

    Appeals
    1
    Affirmed
    0 (0%)
    Reversed
    1 (100%)
    Remanded
    0 (0%)

Grounds for reversal or remand

The grounds the Board gave. A case can have more than one.

No rational connection from the facts to the conclusion29
Ignored material evidence25
Misapplied mitigation3
Other1

Errors alleged on appeal

The errors the parties raised, across every appeal in this selection.

Arbitrary, capricious, or contrary to law135
The judge mis-weighed or ignored evidence54
Mitigation wrongly applied16
No specific harmful error alleged14
Erroneous finding of fact10
Whole-person analysis7
Due process or fairness5
Legal error5
Judge bias or partiality2
Credibility determination2

Error found, but harmless

20%

of affirmances · 21 of 107

The Board agreed the judge erred but left the outcome in place, because the error did not change the result.

Most-cited authorities

  • Department of the Navy v. Egan89
  • Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n of the United States v. State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co.61
  • Dorfmont v. Brown21
  • ISCR Case No. 00-0050 (July 2312
  • ISCR Case No. 99-0424 (February 89
  • ISCR Case No. 99-0532 (February 276
  • ISCR Case No. 03-19101 at 2 (App. Bd. Oct. 136
  • ISCR Case No. 05-036356
Appeal Board judges by number of appeals

Appeals are decided by three-member panels, so an outcome belongs to the panel and not to any single judge. There is no per-judge rate for that reason.

Michael Y. Ra'anan · 93 appealsJames E. Moody · 88 appealsWilliam S. Fields · 65 appealsJeffrey D. Billett · 62 appealsJean E. Smallin · 54 appealsEmilio Jaksetic · 20 appeals

A structured reading of the decided public Appeal Board record. The outcome the Board stated matched our independent read in 100% of cases.

Browse appeal decisions

Questions about these statistics

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It answers questions about the figures on this page, inside the filters you have set, with the denominator behind every number.

Professional plan details

Publications and measured series

Ongoing analyses computed from the decided record, each on its own page, with its method and the counts behind every rate.

Granted ÷ decided; † marks groups under 20 cases. Full methodology

Reading the statistics

  • Granted = access granted or continued; Denied = denied or revoked.
  • Grant rate = granted ÷ (granted + denied).
  • † marks figures based on fewer than 20 cases, too few to be reliable.
  • Hovering any rate shows its statistical range (a 95% confidence interval).
  • Figures are descriptive counts over decided, public DOHA ISCR decisions, never predictions or assessments of any pending case.

Decided public cases: descriptive, never a prediction.